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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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