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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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