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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger v ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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