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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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