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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 November 12
LARGE ECO SUPRA : INDO - INDIA NOW FIXED AT USD 11K FOR DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market continues to remain weak with rates further softening on FH. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 14k and Black Sea to ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS AGAIN ON HIGHER SHIP SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In further evidence of a latest round of dry bulk shipping misery, the industry's benchmark fell for the 11th straight session yesterday, as the in ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
JOIN CHINA STEAM COAL SUPPLY - DEMAND FORUM
Join China Steam Coal Supply-Demand Forum & Visit Shenhua Yudean Zhuhai Port Coal Terminal
Press Release - Organized by CBI BIZ and suppo ...
Wednesday, 07 November 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY ON A STEADY PACE PRIOR TO THE END OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders, which to many involved in the shipping industry, are the main reason of today's low freight rates and subsequent financial prob ...
Tuesday, 06 November 12
NOVEMBER 2012 HBA $35.21 LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for November’ 12 has lost US$ 4.60 per MT M-o-M.
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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