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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 16 November 12
HANDY : IRON ORE WAS QUIET AND RATES FROM INDIA TO CHINA AROUND USD 5500
Handy
The Atlantic was weak with more supply of ships. Rates from Continent/ Feast at USD 9000 and from USG/China at USD 15k. The Pacific market re ...
Wednesday, 14 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 11.14 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,100,686 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended – 0700 hours 12 November 2012, Ne ...
Tuesday, 13 November 12
INITIAL COAL PRODUCTION AT KATINGAN RIA ON TRACK FOR 2013 FOLLOWING GRANTING OF 'IN PRINCIPLE' FORESTRY PERMIT, INDONESIA
Realm Resources Ltd (“Realm” or the “Company” - ASX: RRP) has announced that its application to upgrade its exploration fore ...
Tuesday, 13 November 12
BULK PORTS & TECHNOLOGY ASIA 2013
Press Release - TOC Events are pleased to announce a new addition to our global portfolio with the launch of the inaugural Bulk Ports & Technolo ...
Monday, 12 November 12
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTH KALIMANTAN AS A NEW PROVINCE WILL NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL MINING COMPANIES
The government of Indonesia has ensured that the establishment of North Kalimantan as a new province will not affect the local mining companies ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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