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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 November 12
DRILLING COMPLETED AT THE MOORLANDS DEPOSIT, WEST BOWEN PROJECT
Press Release - Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX: CQC) (“Cuesta”) is pleased to announce it has completed its exploration activities at the Moor ...
Monday, 12 November 12
BARGE-LOAD OF 5K TONNES OF COAL FROM THE ADK JOINT VENTURE SHIPPED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that, it has successfully shipped a 5,000 tonne of ADK thermal coal to an Indonesian trading g ...
Sunday, 11 November 12
AN OPTIMISTIC WEEK FOR INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 2.08 percent WoW and 1.28 percent DoD on Friday, 9 November ...
Sunday, 11 November 12
THE IRON ORE AND COAL PRICES MOVEMENTS REMAINS LOW - VISTAAR
COALspot.com The market remained soft with all the sectors soft.
The BDI and was down by 4.67 pct closing at 940 points, on Friday 9 Novemb ...
Friday, 09 November 12
SHIP OWNERS TURN TO SECOND HAND VESSELS, WHICH COME AT ATTRACTIVE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The attractiveness of modern second hand vessels, which are often priced aggressively can't be ignored by cash-rich ship owners, who are taking adv ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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