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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 November 12
KOMIPO LOOKING FOR 440,000 MT OF 4600 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies or traders to supply of 440,000 Metric ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
CAPESIZE RATES FALL, DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It was another lackluster session yesterday in the dry bulk markets, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating by 1.63 p ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES ARE AT AROUND USD 5,000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND USD 4000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to a lack of cargoes and an increased supply of ships. Rates from the Continent to east Med were around ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE BY FIVE PERCENT IN 2013 - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) chairman Bob Kamandanu has estimated that Indonesian coal production will ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
NEW BUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY KEEPS ON RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have refrained from placing any new orders of vessels during the course of the past few days, according to shipbroker reports. According ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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