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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19 ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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