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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 November 12
BUMI TO PRODUCE 100 MILLION TONS OF COAL BY 2014
COALspot.com - Expansions on both BUMI’ s subsidiaries, PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia ( Arutmin) , are ...
Thursday, 29 November 12
PANAMAX : A FAIRLY STEADY MARKET WITH USD 8.5-9K/DAY FOR 2 LADEN LEGS IN ATLANTIC - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market continues to remain quiet due to more supply of ships. Rates from USG to Far East were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Fa ...
Thursday, 29 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET SLIGHTLY HIGHER DESPITE LULL ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market was marginally higher yesterday, according to the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which rose by 7 points to 1 ...
Wednesday, 28 November 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING PICKS UP AS SHIP OWNERS LOOK TO CLOSE DEALS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are active once again in the newbuilding ordering market, as they look to clinch deals ahead of the end of the year. Once again their fo ...
Tuesday, 27 November 12
NEWCASTLE PORT HAS SHIPPED 1.79 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 26 NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,793,841 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 26 November 2012, Newc ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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