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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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