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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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