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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
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