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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 20 January 13
Q1 & Q4 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: FIRM
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) and CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’ 2013 delivery have gained 0.81percent and ...
Sunday, 20 January 13
S7 & S8 ROUTE FREIGHT TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices BDI up by 9.21 pct closing at 837 points. The Cape index was also sharply u ...
Friday, 18 January 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. TO ACQUIRE TWO COAL PROPERTIES WITH ESTIMATED COAL RESERVES OF 18.6 MMT & 143.1 MMT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. Announces Signing Agreement to Acquire Properties with Estimated Coal Reserves of 18.6 Million Tons; Signing Agreement to Acqu ...
Friday, 18 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE, ON STRONG DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has continued its climbing trend yesterday, as the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 39 points to 820. ...
Friday, 18 January 13
CAPESIZE : SIGNALS ARE MIXED BUT THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with USG-Feast fixed around USD 17k, according to fearnleys’s weekly report.
Continent / Medite ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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