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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 January 13
BAYAN RESOURCES TO SELL 18 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO GNPOWER MARIVELES COAL PLANT
Publicly-listed PT Bayan Resources announced on Friday that it had signed an agreement on coal sales with Philippine-based GNPower Mariveles Coal Pl ...
Sunday, 27 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.31 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 27 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET: FLAT TO SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down except for handy size.
The BDI was down 4.66 pct closing at 798 points.. ...
Friday, 25 January 13
BOTSWANA GOVERNMENT GRANTS COAL LICENSES TO A-CAP RESOURCES LIMITED
A-Cap Resources Limited has announced that it has been granted coal rights within its Bolau tenements which sit next to the Sese Coal and Power Proj ...
Friday, 25 January 13
SMALL ROOM FOR OPTIMISM FOR THE PROSPECTS OF THE DRY BULK MARKET AS NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market didn't manage to post a rebound during the past year, quite the opposite, as a fast fleet growth and slow ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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