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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on the downside during the past couple of days, mainly as a result of the tropical storm which forced ports to close do ...
Tuesday, 22 January 13
PORT OF ANTWERP HANDLES 7.0 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2012 Y-Y
COALspot.com - The port of Antwerp handled 184,134,516 tonnes of freight last year.
This represents a drop of 1.6% compared with 2011, when the v ...
Monday, 21 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 10.21 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 21 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,804,152 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 21 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 21 January 13
PANAMAX DRY BULK CARRIERS AND AFRAMAX TANKERS PROVED TO BE THE "WEAPON OF CHOICE" FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship financing getting ever so difficult to procure during the past year or so, ship owners had to get creative in order to persuade banks and ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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