We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 13 January 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET: FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices up with maximum gain in the Panamax segment. The BDI was up by 7.65 pct clo ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
|
|
|
Showing 4426 to 4430 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
|
| |
| |
|
