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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 01 February 13
HANDY - FLAT; PANAMAX - FLAT TO WEAK; CAPESIZE - WEAK
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 17k and Black sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
DRY BULK RATES ON A FALLING PATTERN DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The seasonal factor has emerged as the latest catalyst in determining the course of the dry bulk market, as the floods in eastern Australia, the big ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.70 MMT OF COAL W/E 28 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,703,921 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 28 January 2013, Newca ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
MMTC TO IMPORT 2.68 MMT OF COAL FOR ARAVALI POWER CORPORATION LTD
COALspot.com: The tender floated by MMTC on behalf of Aravali Power Corporation Ltd, a Joint venture between NTPC and State of Haryana for supply of ...
Wednesday, 30 January 13
TNPL TO SECURE 300K MT OF IMPORTED COAL SUPPLIES AT US$ 75.95 PMT FOR MARCH - AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Chennai based Coastal Energy Private Limited (C&O Group of companies) offered lowest price of US$ 75.95 per met ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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