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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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