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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
Friday, 16 November 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON INVESTING IN SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Priced attractively, modern and with prompt delivery dates, second hand vessels are proving to be rather popular among cash-rich ship owners these d ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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