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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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