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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
LITTLE IMPACT FROM DISSOLUTION OF BP MIGAS ON INDONESIAN OIL & GAS COMPANIES - FITCH
Fitch Ratings has said that the recent court order to abolish the Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, has minimal immediate impact ...
Wednesday, 21 November 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES FIRST COAL OFF TAKE CONTRACT
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX:OEG) has announced that it has signed a coal sales contract with an Indonesian steel manufacturing compan ...
Tuesday, 20 November 12
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT HAS LOADED 13.18 PERCENT LESS COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,691,731 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 19 November 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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