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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 27 November 12
NEWCASTLE PORT HAS SHIPPED 1.79 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 26 NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,793,841 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 26 November 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was buoyant this week with all sectors up except for the Cape size index. The BDI was up by 5.21 pct closing at 10 ...
Sunday, 25 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP CONTRACTS SLIDE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for February 2013 delivery lost 0.76percent WoW but gained 0.16 percent DoD on Friday ...
Saturday, 24 November 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCES 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 31.1 million bcm* (-4.0% YoY) of Overburden in October 2012 totaled while coal production was ...
Thursday, 22 November 12
HANDY: INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA NOW FIXED AT USD 12500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tig ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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