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Friday, 23 November 12
CHOOSING THE RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN NEW VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Shipping is all about timing, a process often rising to the height of artform, as ship owners are having to pick the exact moment of selling most of their fleet and investing a new one, i.e. selling high and buying low. As the current market conditions favor the buying part of the market, with asset values on a downward path during the past few years, it's not easy to pick the right time, since next week a vessel with similar specifications to the one purchased, may have lost an additonal few thousand dollars off its value and in shipping even those matter.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict with full accuracy the proper timing, not to mention estimate where vessel values will have moved during the next couple of months. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based Intermodal, despite the fact that most market pundits continually voice that second-hand and newbuilding prices have the potential to fall by as much as 20-30% in the next few months, there are always "Black Swan" events which catch everyone by surprise.
In his analysis, Intermodal's Panos Makrinos notes that "taking the case however that asset prices may drop further, it makes fair reason for any prospective buyer who currently has serious interest in buying new vessels, to wait for some time before taking any decisive action. All that being said, such a decision may well be within minimal risk of an upward swing in asset prices but always entailing some".
He added that "according to current market anticipation, the right time to buy a second-hand vessel or a newbuilding will be some point in the first half of 2013. The expectation is that prices will more accurately reflect the current low freight levels experienced as well as the lack of serious buying interest. The question that arises here is whether this common thinking is indeed reasonable and able in itself to persuade all these prospective Buyers to wait despite the discounted prices offered. In essence, their choice to wait means that they would forgo any potential gains that could be succeeded from acquiring modern second hand or newbuilding vessels at current levels. The question is to what extent should owners be chasing the market bottom, especially in the case were they are planning to make more than one vessel acquisition" he noted.
Makrinos also mentions that "in the case of new orders we can see a further case for owners to take on this decisive action, since we all appreciate that what both the dry and wet sectors need right now is ever stronger demolition activity in order to counterbalance all the new deliveries that we have seen in 2012 so far. As mentioned in our weekly report at the end of last month, in the dry sector alone we have seen more than 1,000 dry bulk carriers delivered since the start of the year with over 85 million tons of deadweight capacity and there is still time to go before the end of the year. This may well have been offset by the record number of demolitions seen, however we it has not been all smooth sailing in the scrap market. Demo prices have recently been under pressure and with a lack of clear market direction it looks as though they could possible soften further by the end of the year if we continue to see the current strong supply of demo tonnage in combination with weak steel demand.
What one might voice, is whether all this should truly influence one’s decision for further ordering. A new vessel is always treated better amongst charterers than an old one, while at the same time you would not expect to miss out on any “Party” while waiting for delivery. The argument as to whether one should order a new building or buy a secondhand unit will continue on for some time, however what is imperative and would be seen as an encouraging sign, is a more active stance towards demolition, especially while the current scrap steel prices still hold their ground. After all no-one knows what the New Year may have in stall for the shipping industry and it may well be better to be with cash at hand" the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 December 12
JATENERGY SIGNS MOU FOR INDONESIAN COAL ASSET
COALspot.com - Jatenergy Limited has announced that its fully-owned Indonesian subsidiary, PT Barata Energy (BE), has signed an exclusive, non-bindi ...
Tuesday, 04 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 55.88 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 3 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,796,341 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 December 2012, Newca ...
Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1 2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW respectively ...
Saturday, 01 December 12
TIGHT SUPPLY, DEMAND PUSH INDO-INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES HIGHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed this week as cape and Panamax indices are closing softer.
The BDI was down 0.37 pct closing at 1,086 ...
Friday, 30 November 12
FUTURE TREND OF SECOND HAND SHIP VALUES PUZZLING SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the major challenges that ship owners are facing today is whether or not to invest in a second hand vessel at any given time. For instance, i ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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