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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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