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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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