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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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