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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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