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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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