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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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