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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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