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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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