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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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