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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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