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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 1.15 MILLION TONS OF 5000 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.125million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tender ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 375,000 MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 375,000 metric tons of low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
ADK SHIPPED 28,000 TONNES OF COAL THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that four coal barges carrying a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of ADK (Alam Duta K ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS RENTER FLEET AFTER IDLING, ON MARKETS RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be back on track, not only solidifying the gains of the past couple of weeks, but also racing to new heights, recuperra ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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