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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
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Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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