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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Wednesday, 25 April 12
CHINA IMPORTS 9.76 MMT AND INDIA IMPORTS 7.03 MMT OF INDONESIAN COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 30.64* million tons of coal in March 2012, compared to 27.12* million tons i ...
Monday, 23 April 12
ALTURA ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE 2 COAL PROJECTS IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Altura Mining Limited (ASX: AJM) has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a further two (2) Mining Permits (IUP ...
Sunday, 22 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI has broken the psychological barrier of 1000 points and closed at 1067 points.
The cape index was slightly down by 2.48 pc ...
Saturday, 21 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP 2.61 PERCENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps fell for a fifth day, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps.
CFR South China Coal ...
Friday, 20 April 12
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A rebound of demand for smaller dry bulk carriers has led the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) above the 1,000-point mark for ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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