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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Thursday, 03 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE, POSTING MILD DECREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept retreating this week, although at a very low pace, on the back of a lull in demand. The industry's benchmark, th ...
Thursday, 03 May 12
MINERS DEMAND LEGAL CERTAINTY ON PRE-BAN INTERIM POLICY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Mining companies represented by the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) welcomed the government’s plan to impo ...
Thursday, 03 May 12
HANDY EAST COAST INDIA - CHINA AROUND USD 7000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy - Stable demand in the Atlantic offered good rates for the tonnage.
USG/Cont was worth USD 17500 and more. Baltic and Black Sea appeared to ...
Wednesday, 02 May 12
CHINA BLACKOUTS HIGHLIGHT PRICING POLICY WEAKNESS - FITCH
Fitch reported that, the likelihood of further electricity blackouts in China this summer underlines Fitch's view of the basic problem f ...
Tuesday, 01 May 12
VIETNAM FEARS IT MAY NOT SEEK COAL SUPPLIES - TBKTSG / VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
TBKTSG / VietNamNet Bridge reported that, with five coal-run thermopower plants under construction, PetroVietnam alone would need 18 million tons of ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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