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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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