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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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