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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affe ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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