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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
Wednesday, 06 June 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICES CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since January 2011 in June 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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