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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
Wednesday, 06 June 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICES CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since January 2011 in June 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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