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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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