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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of s ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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