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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 15 January 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to bleed with BDI touching almost 1000 points , almost reaching the collapse of 2008 levels," said C ...
Saturday, 14 January 12
GOLDEN MINES TO SUPPLY 4 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner under Sinarmas Group PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DS ...
Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benc ...
Thursday, 12 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET CRASHING AT START OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept being on freefall mode yesterday, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) losing a massive 5.17% on ...
Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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