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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS PICKED UP IN 2011, BUT 2012 EXPECTED TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) starting the year on a sour note, losing 114 points and ending yesterday’s session, the first of the new year, ...
Wednesday, 04 January 12
MAHAGENCO TO IMPORT LOW MOISTURE COAL
COALspot.com - Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. is the state power generation utility owned by Government of Maharashtra, intends to proc ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
INDONESIA COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL AGAIN
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has sets the January 2012 coal reference price at US$ 109.29 per ton or US$ 3.3 ...
Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of ...
Monday, 02 January 12
THE PROMISE OF INDIA: A BRIEF INTERRUPTION? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Future growth in Indian seaborne coal imports has sometimes been considered as one of the largest potential upsides in the currently oversupplied dr ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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