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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 19 January 12
14TH VOGP MEETING IN HO CHI MINH CITY HANDS OUT LATEST UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM'S ENERGY INDUSTRY
Press Release: At upcoming 14th Vietnam Oil Gas Power on 27-28 Feb in Ho Chi Minh City the industry’s most influential names including Petrovi ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
DELTA DUNIA SEALS US$820 MIO CONTRACT INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ( ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
WARM WINTER ACROSS EUROPE HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY COAL DEMAND - BRS
With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET'S DRAMA CONTINUES IN START OF NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of newbuilding deliveries, coupled with a slow start to the new year, a typical trend for the dry bulk market, has led the industry's benc ...
Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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