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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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