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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 10 January 12
THE 4TH DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012 WILL KICK OFF ON MAY 23 - 25
Press release - Based on the past three years’ success, SZ & W Group is excited to announce the 4th Deepwater Asia Congress will be held o ...
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of s ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
ICICI OUTLOOK ON INDIAN POWER, MINING,CEMENT, AND SHIPPING SECTORS PERFORMANCE IN 2012
Broking firm, ICICIdirect (India) has come out with report on sectors outlook for 2012. IRIS has collated key highlights for each sector from ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 7000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
Wish You a Very Happy and Prosperous New year 2012.
COALspot.com - The last report by us was on 16th Dec 2011 and because of holidays this would ...
Sunday, 08 January 12
THARPAK CONSORTIUM FORMED TO DEVELOP MEGA ENERGY COMPLEX IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN
Press Release: On January 5th, TharPak, LLC met with officials of the Embassy of Pakistan in Washington DC to introduce and announce the formation o ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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