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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES SELLS MORE THAN FOUR MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2011, 58% MORE THAN 2010
COALspot.com - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) has successfully complets year 2011 on guidance in terms of coal sales and production.
...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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