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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to cont ...
Friday, 10 February 12
GIVE PERMIT POWERS TO GOVERNORS: MINERS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, following clashes between mining companies and local residents, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) wants to tra ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
AUSTRALIA'S EPIC TO ACQUIRE 15,500 HA COAL EXPLORATION LICENCES IN EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Epic Resources Limited to acquire two coal concessions in Kutai Barat regency, East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to company's ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
RESOURCE ALAM BUYS 28,521HA CONCESSIONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), owned by Adijanto family, today announced acquisition of 75% interest in PT Ka ...
Tuesday, 07 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY STOPS DECLINE, POSTS FIRST RISE IN MORE THAN A MONTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After falling to near record lows, not seen since the mid-80s the dry bulk market has finally stopped its path to "hell", with the industr ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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