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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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