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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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