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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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