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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 March 12
RESOURCE ALAM FY11 PROFIT UP 171% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) reported a 171.16% jump in net profit last year on the back ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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