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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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