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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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