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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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