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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 March 12
ECI-CHINA HANDY RATES ARE AROUND US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another positive trend was seen last week with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw-Passero/US Gulf climbed slowly up to USD 3700, while US ...
Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger s ...
Wednesday, 21 March 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2012
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur's overburden removal in February 2012 has reached totaled 23.8 million bcm (+2.4% YoY) while coal production ...
Tuesday, 20 March 12
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS STILL LEADING DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been growing during the past couple of weeks, but contrary to the usual practice, it’s not the larger Capesizes which ...
Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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