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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 April 12
PANAMAXES AGAIN EARN MORE THAN CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of demand for Panamaxes has led the dry bulk market to new higher ground on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching 1,090 ...
Wednesday, 25 April 12
CHINA IMPORTS 9.76 MMT AND INDIA IMPORTS 7.03 MMT OF INDONESIAN COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 30.64* million tons of coal in March 2012, compared to 27.12* million tons i ...
Monday, 23 April 12
ALTURA ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT TO ACQUIRE 2 COAL PROJECTS IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Altura Mining Limited (ASX: AJM) has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a further two (2) Mining Permits (IUP ...
Sunday, 22 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI has broken the psychological barrier of 1000 points and closed at 1067 points.
The cape index was slightly down by 2.48 pc ...
Saturday, 21 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP 2.61 PERCENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps fell for a fifth day, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps.
CFR South China Coal ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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