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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS 1Q OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN HAS INCREASED BY 6% TO RP. 1 TRILLION
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (Persero), the Indonesia’s state owned coal miner's 1Q, 2012 revenue has increased by 31% to Rp. 3.02 trillion ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 1.15 MILLION TONS OF 5000 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.125million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tender ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
TAIPOWER TO BUY 375,000 MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 375,000 metric tons of low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
ADK SHIPPED 28,000 TONNES OF COAL THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced that four coal barges carrying a total of approximately 28,000 tonnes of ADK (Alam Duta K ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS RENTER FLEET AFTER IDLING, ON MARKETS RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market seems to be back on track, not only solidifying the gains of the past couple of weeks, but also racing to new heights, recuperra ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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