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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 01 May 12
VIETNAM FEARS IT MAY NOT SEEK COAL SUPPLIES - TBKTSG / VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
TBKTSG / VietNamNet Bridge reported that, with five coal-run thermopower plants under construction, PetroVietnam alone would need 18 million tons of ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to go up with the support of Panamax/Supramax and was up by 8.34 pct closing at 1,156 points.
The cape index was ...
Sunday, 29 April 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR MAY 2012 DELIVERY WAS STABLE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps for May deliveries stable this week, according to DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. In the me ...
Friday, 27 April 12
BUKIT ASAMS NET INCOME UP 14% IN 1Q 2012 (UNAUDITED)
Press Release - PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, announced the Consolidated Financial Statements and Subsidiaries per 31 March 2012 (Unaudited).
Reve ...
Thursday, 26 April 12
AUSTRALIAS COKAL EXPANDS MET COAL POTENTIAL INTO WEST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Global metallurgical coal group Cokal Limited (Cokal) (ASX:CKA) announced today it has completed the acquisition of 75.2% of PT Silan ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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