We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
|
|
|
Showing 4736 to 4740 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
